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| The Supreme Leader and Ali Khamenei |
Twelve days after U.S. and Israeli strikes targeted Iran's military and nuclear infrastructure, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei emerged from seclusion into a transformed strategic reality. He now faces internal instability, military exposure, and looming questions about the future of Iran’s nuclear ambitions and regional role.
In his latest speech, Khamenei attempted to project "victory" against Israel and the United States. However, on-the-ground realities suggest a sharp decline in Iran’s deterrence capabilities—both in terms of military strength and the reliability of its allies.
Intelligence sources confirmed that the strikes severely damaged nuclear facilities and led to the loss of several key scientific and military personnel. In response, Iran suspended cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, aiming to conceal the true extent of the damage until internal assessments are completed.
Cracked Deterrence and the Collapse of the "Resistance Axis"
Mohammed Al-Zagoul, a researcher at the Emirates Policy Center, noted during a “Studio One” interview that Iran faced the attacks alone, without intervention from its regional proxies. This marks a significant shift in the rules of engagement.
“Iran’s deterrence relied on three pillars: militias, the missile program, and the threat of nuclear capabilities,” said Al-Zagoul. “Today, all three have been shaken. Key Iranian-backed groups such as the Popular Mobilization Forces, the Houthis, and Hezbollah remained silent, despite decades of Iranian support.”
Khamenei’s Dilemma: Negotiation or Strategic Realignment?
Given the current landscape, Khamenei has two choices: enter serious negotiations with the U.S., potentially including concessions on uranium enrichment levels, or rebuild Iran's conventional deterrence while focusing inward under growing economic and social pressure.
Al-Zagoul added, “Iran may reinvest in its missile programs and bolster its air defenses and air force. Internal debate may also emerge about relocating enrichment activities abroad in exchange for guaranteed access to civilian nuclear fuel.”
Doctrinal Change or Tactical Policy Shift?
While Iran may adjust its policies, Al-Zagoul argues that the ideological framework of the regime remains unchanged. “A more realistic change would be reprioritizing enemies. Tehran might stop branding the U.S. as the ‘Great Satan’ and instead center Israel as its main adversary. This shift would help Iran remain within international legitimacy while retaining its revolutionary identity.”
Will Iran Shut Down Its Nuclear Program?
Contrary to U.S. statements, Iran shows no sign of dismantling its nuclear program. Tehran is likely to maintain minimal enrichment on its soil or propose internationally supervised alternatives.
Al-Zagoul explains, “Total renunciation of enrichment would be politically humiliating inside Iran. Negotiations may allow moving enrichment to a monitored site abroad under terms that safeguard Iran’s sovereignty and peaceful nuclear rights.”
Khamenei’s Address: Controlling Domestic Fallout
Observers suggest Khamenei’s speech targeted a domestic audience, aiming to manage internal backlash and stabilize support within the regime.
“Both Washington and Tehran are speaking to internal audiences,” Al-Zagoul concludes. “Trump emphasizes military success, while Khamenei reassures his base that Iran remains resilient and strategically intact.”
Iran may now be entering a "post-expansion" phase—refocusing on domestic stability and reducing the cost of its foreign entanglements after an unexpected conflict that exposed vulnerabilities and isolated its network of allies.
With little support from Russia or China and silent regional proxies, Iran may be forced to redefine its position in the region—at least partially—for survival.
